COVID-19

Probabilities and Statistics

I have been trying to find how low the probability is of dying with COVID-19 if you have had both vaccination doses. However it’s proved to be an almost impossible task. My hopes were raised this week by an article in The Guardian and also the release of information by the ONS . Still, however It is an almost impossible task to try and read and correlate statistics to find one definitive answer.

From the ONS

However, from the ONS report, one table does jump out at me. The data is for deaths occurring between 2 January and 2 July. It shows just 458 deaths out of 51,281 if people have had TWO doses of vaccine or 0.8%

Source: Office for National Statistics – National Immunisation Management Service, NHS Test and Trace

Conclusion

I have finally had to give up on trying to find the answer to my question. The ONS data ends in July and this is mid September. We have now all had TWO doses. I can’t figure out how the Guardian came up with the 1.2% or how Sajid Javid came up with 1% on BBC Breakfast this morning. However, I do feel that it must be around the 1% which means that non vaccinated people are up to 99 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than you are…. Or is this too simplistic?

Further Reading

• Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England: deaths occurring between 2 January and 2 July 2021
• Fully vaccinated people account for 1.2% of England’s Covid-19 deaths

We will NOT achieve herd immunity with COVID

It seems increasing likely that COVID is here to stay. If not for ever, then certainly for years to come. The Delta variant is so infectious that everyone WILL be exposed to it at some point, probably by someone who is asymptomatic.

Here in the UK if you have had two doses of the vaccine:

• You are 49% less likely of being infected compared with unvaccinated people.
• If you DO catch COVID, you are then around 25 times less likely to end up in hospital than someone who has not had the vaccine.
• If you DO end up up in hospital, you are also less likely to die.

This Winter

So far, the UK Vaccine program has prevented 60,000 deaths. However, a winter wave of COVID is inevitable together with a larger than normal flu season. (Dr Mark Porter – The Times) A booster program for COVID for the winter is being planned. So make sure you get both jabs if offered.

The Future

My predictions for Winter 2021 onwards

• Routine Testing will become less important in schools and workplaces etc. Testing will only happen at point of infection or for travel.
• We will have to learn “To live with COVID” the genie is out of the box!
• Travel will open right up.
• Events will open right up
• No more lockdowns

COVID is here to stay………..we have to live with it.

Nature – February 2021

• The Guardian
• The Standard
• The Telegraph
• UK Gov COVID-19 Vaccine surveillance report: 26 August 2021

• Stinchcombe Calendar Spring Photos
• The Big Question
• The story of the Oxford vaccine
• A plea from local surgeries
• COVID-19 vaccine registry

All the news at present is about Passports

It seems that all the news at present is about COVID Passports and where are we going for our Summer Holiday. We have been in lockdown here since early January and been vaccinating as fast as we can. So, our infection rate in the population has decreased from a high of 11.2% to 0.5% on the above graph.

Meanwhile all the countries that we go to for our holidays are going the other way and look like they are entering a new “wave”

I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but should we be talking about holidays where the infection rate is above 5% (1 in 200) ? After all this was the benchmark last year for the governments Red List?

It has cost the country Billions to get the infection rate down to where it is. Should we now run the risk of re-introducing a new variant like the new Brittany Variant ? We saw the Panic over the Brazilian Variant when it was discovered. Or is the Test and Trace System now “World Beating“? Or are we confident that our European cousins now have things in control.

It’s Not a Race

In one breath we are told “it’s not a race”. However, in the next we are told how well the UK are doing compared with others. So which is true?

On the Bloomberg opens in a new window website they have launched a Covid Vaccine tracker opens in a new window. This is gives information in real time tracker and of course is USA biased. However, scroll down to the section titled “Race to End the Pandemic” (remember it’s NOT a race) and you get the interesting stuff.

This how many doses given and more importantly what percentage of the population. As of Jan 05 2021 the UK had vaccinated 1.95% of the the population. Which I think is quite laudable and we should the the UK Government it’s due for this.

It will take time

We must however realise that it will take time. The UK Government is aiming to give 2M doses a week. There are 65M people in the UK. Each Vaccine needs 2 doses. That’s 65 weeks needed to vaccinate everyone….