COVID-19

All the news at present is about Passports

It seems that all the news at present is about COVID Passports and where are we going for our Summer Holiday. We have been in lockdown here since early January and been vaccinating as fast as we can. So, our infection rate in the population has decreased from a high of 11.2% to 0.5% on the above graph.

Meanwhile all the countries that we go to for our holidays are going the other way and look like they are entering a new “wave”

I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but should we be talking about holidays where the infection rate is above 5% (1 in 200) ? After all this was the benchmark last year for the governments Red List?

It has cost the country Billions to get the infection rate down to where it is. Should we now run the risk of re-introducing a new variant like the new Brittany Variant ? We saw the Panic over the Brazilian Variant when it was discovered. Or is the Test and Trace System now “World Beating“? Or are we confident that our European cousins now have things in control.

It’s Not a Race

In one breath we are told “it’s not a race”. However, in the next we are told how well the UK are doing compared with others. So which is true?

On the Bloomberg opens in a new window website they have launched a Covid Vaccine tracker opens in a new window. This is gives information in real time tracker and of course is USA biased. However, scroll down to the section titled “Race to End the Pandemic” (remember it’s NOT a race) and you get the interesting stuff.

This how many doses given and more importantly what percentage of the population. As of Jan 05 2021 the UK had vaccinated 1.95% of the the population. Which I think is quite laudable and we should the the UK Government it’s due for this.

It will take time

We must however realise that it will take time. The UK Government is aiming to give 2M doses a week. There are 65M people in the UK. Each Vaccine needs 2 doses. That’s 65 weeks needed to vaccinate everyone….

A fascinating read

I read a long article on the BBC website this week on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. How it came into being and how quick it was off the mark. The problems encountered to find funding. The false stories put about on social media and what impact this had. And finally the problems with production and testing.

Written by Fergus Walsh, the BBC’s Medical editor I recommend the article for anyone who would like to get an insight of what it is like to try and develop what could still be the worlds number#1 vaccine next year for the Coronavirus pandemic.

The article is titled Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine: Bogus reports, accidental finds – the story of the jab

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• Wotton Area CAN
• A Litter picking challenge
• Woodland Walk Clean-up
• Stinchcombe Together

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When do I get my Vaccine?

Now that we seem to have successful vaccines coming on line very soon, the one question we all want answered is “When do I get my COVID-19 vaccine?” It goes along with “When will life return to normal?”

The UK Government is talking already about mass vaccinations but unless they know something that I don’t, we are all going to have to wait.

At present Pfizer is planning to produce 50 million doses by the end of 2020 and Moderna 20 million and let’s say they both get approval and let’s say the UK gets 10% (my guesstimate) of the production, that would be 7,000,000. This would be enough for everyone over everyone aged 80 and over.

Next year, 2021 Pfizer is planning to produce 1.3 billion and Moderna 500 million. Britain has ordered 40 million from Pfizer. So this would give us in the UK a further 35 million by the end of 2021. Enough to vaccinate everyone over 35 years old.

The Big Unknown

The Vaccine that could change everything is the Oxford vaccine by the University of Oxford (Vaccitech) and AstraZeneca which is still three months away. It is a different vaccine and made in a different and easier way. 2 billion doses could be made next year in the UK alone. This could easily satisfy our requirements. Let’s hope it passes all tests.

Tentative Conclusion

This is my suggested timescale for Vaccinations for different ages:

• 80 plus very late 2020 / early 2021
• 35 plus in 2021
• Under 35 in 2022.
• If the Oxford works and is released in Feb / March, then all bets are off.

References

• Manufacturing enough Covid-19 vaccine is a logistical nightmare
• UK population pyramid
• Oxford Biomedica snags manufacturing equipment to ramp up production of COVID-19 vaccine

• Thank you!
• Wotton Area CAN
• A Litter picking challenge
• Woodland Walk Clean-up
• Stinchcombe Together

App Charity COVID-19 Environment Footpaths friends of st cyrs Fun History Information Our Environment Parish Council Phone Box Post Box Ride&Stride Roads Rugby Club Scams Speedwatch St Cyrs Stroud District Council Testing TGIF Toad Patrol Tyndale Village Hall Virtual Village