This how many doses given and more importantly what percentage of the population. As of Jan 05 2021 the UK had vaccinated 1.95% of the the population. Which I think is quite laudable and we should the the UK Government it’s due for this.
It will take time
We must however realise that it will take time. The UK Government is aiming to give 2M doses a week. There are 65M people in the UK. Each Vaccine needs 2 doses. That’s 65 weeks needed to vaccinate everyone….
I read a long article on the BBC website this week on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. How it came into being and how quick it was off the mark. The problems encountered to find funding. The false stories put about on social media and what impact this had. And finally the problems with production and testing.
Written by Fergus Walsh, the BBC’s Medical editor I recommend the article for anyone who would like to get an insight of what it is like to try and develop what could still be the worlds number#1 vaccine next year for the Coronavirus pandemic.
Now that we seem to have successful vaccines coming on line very soon, the one question we all want answered is “When do I get my COVID-19 vaccine?” It goes along with “When will life return to normal?”
The UK Government is talking already about mass vaccinations but unless they know something that I don’t, we are all going to have to wait.
At present Pfizer is planning to produce 50 million doses by the end of 2020 and Moderna 20 million and let’s say they both get approval and let’s say the UK gets 10% (my guesstimate) of the production, that would be 7,000,000. This would be enough for everyone over everyone aged 80 and over.
Next year, 2021 Pfizer is planning to produce 1.3 billion and Moderna 500 million. Britain has ordered 40 million from Pfizer. So this would give us in the UK a further 35 million by the end of 2021. Enough to vaccinate everyone over 35 years old.
The Big Unknown
The Vaccine that could change everything is the Oxford vaccine by the University of Oxford (Vaccitech) and AstraZeneca which is still three months away. It is a different vaccine and made in a different and easier way. 2 billion doses could be made next year in the UK alone. This could easily satisfy our requirements. Let’s hope it passes all tests.
This is my suggested timescale for Vaccinations for different ages:
80 plus very late 2020 / early 2021
35 plus in 2021
Under 35 in 2022.
If the Oxford works and is released in Feb / March, then all bets are off.
After two weeks of lockdown, we still have two more weeks of Lockdown. Many people probably feel that this second Lockdown is harder than the first. Maybe because of the darker nights, maybe because of “pandemic fatigue“, or just because of less social interaction. It might be because someone has employment or financial worries.
Covid has also come closer, with most people now knowing either a person who has had COVID or knows of a friend of a friend.
At this time remember to look after your neighbours and keep in touch with friends, make sure they are OK. Remember Stinchcombe Together is still here to help with:
People who were advised to shield during the last wave and People who had access to a supermarket priority delivery slot will still be able to access this without the need to re-register. People who did not use this service during the first lockdown but would like to this time they will need to register. This can be done by via The National Shielding Support Service(NSSS).
Some residents may have received a letter from the Government and Gloucestershire County Council advising them that they are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV). If a resident hasn’t received a letter but believes they are a CEV they would need to check with their GP or Clinician regarding this. You can find a list of people who would be considered to be a CEV here at SDC
Like most people, I had hoped that the country could avoid a second National Lockdown. However it seems we have joined an ever lengthening list of countries that include Austria, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland and other parts of the UK that have announced a second Lockdown.
Re-reading the plot
I have been looking back at one of my earlier posts from the website in the year about Coronavirus and COVID-19, especially the earlier ones and what I forecast. For example:
The first is still possible, the second is now wrong and the third I still think will be true.
So, why are we in Lockdown – AGAIN
We all had hoped that because the virus infection rates had receded during the summer that we would be able to carry on, with restrictions, through the Winter. Unfortunately to my mind it come down to one thing The Percentage of Asymptomatic Cases.
According to the latest research from the CDC, 40% of all infections are asymptomatic. The CDC also say that this 40% pass on 75% of all infections.
This means, that you are three times as likely to catch COVID-19 from a person showing no signs of infection as you are from a person showing infection.
Without proper SOCIAL DISTANCING people play Russian Roulette with the virus. Every close contact outside your support bubble increases the probability that the person you meet is infectious but asymptomatic. Here in Gloucestershire, Stroud area cases have increased 69% in the last 7 days. We are still BELOW the National average, but the “confirmed” case numbers are now rising steeply.
AND REMEMBER for every 10 confirmed cases, there are 4 more walking around who don’t know they have it!
Having just looked at the confirmed covid cases for the UK and France I note that we seem to be around 10 days behind France. Today (October 28th) we have 917K cases and France passed this number on October 21st. Does this mean we shall pass the 1m in 3 days and be in Lockdown in 10 days?
Today France is talking about a total lockdown according to the news. Time to go out and buy toilet paper and flour again?