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COVID-19

Coronavirus

And the answer is

Probabilities and Statistics

I have been trying to find how low the probability is of dying with COVID-19 if you have had both vaccination doses. However it’s proved to be an almost impossible task. My hopes were raised this week by an article in The Guardian and also the release of information by the ONS . Still, however It is an almost impossible task to try and read and correlate statistics to find one definitive answer.

From the ONS

However, from the ONS report, one table does jump out at me. The data is for deaths occurring between 2 January and 2 July. It shows just 458 deaths out of 51,281 if people have had TWO doses of vaccine or 0.8%

Vaccination statusDeaths involving
COVID-19
Non-COVID-19
deaths
Percent of
all deaths
All deaths regardless of vaccination status51,281214,70119.3
Unvaccinated 38,96465,17037.4
Deaths within 21 days of first dose4,38814,26523.5
Deaths 21 days or more after first dose 7,28966,5339.9
Deaths within 21 days of second dose18211,4701.6
Deaths 21 days or more after second dose 45857,2630.8

Source: Office for National Statistics – National Immunisation Management Service, NHS Test and Trace

Conclusion

I have finally had to give up on trying to find the answer to my question. The ONS data ends in July and this is mid September. We have now all had TWO doses. I can’t figure out how the Guardian came up with the 1.2% or how Sajid Javid came up with 1% on BBC Breakfast this morning. However, I do feel that it must be around the 1% which means that non vaccinated people are up to 99 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than you are…. Or is this too simplistic?

Further Reading

Coronavirus

Endemic NOT Pandemic

We will NOT achieve herd immunity with COVID

It seems increasing likely that COVID is here to stay. If not for ever, then certainly for years to come. The Delta variant is so infectious that everyone WILL be exposed to it at some point, probably by someone who is asymptomatic.

Here in the UK if you have had two doses of the vaccine:

  • You are 49% less likely of being infected compared with unvaccinated people.
  • If you DO catch COVID, you are then around 25 times less likely to end up in hospital than someone who has not had the vaccine.
  • If you DO end up up in hospital, you are also less likely to die.

This Winter

So far, the UK Vaccine program has prevented 60,000 deaths. However, a winter wave of COVID is inevitable together with a larger than normal flu season. (Dr Mark Porter – The Times) A booster program for COVID for the winter is being planned. So make sure you get both jabs if offered.

The Future

My predictions for Winter 2021 onwards

  • Routine Testing will become less important in schools and workplaces etc. Testing will only happen at point of infection or for travel.
  • We will have to learn “To live with COVID” the genie is out of the box!
  • Travel will open right up.
  • Events will open right up
  • No more lockdowns

COVID is here to stay………..we have to live with it.

Nature – February 2021

Coronavirus Image

So are we going on holiday?

% of Tests positive
See the above at Our World in Data

All the news at present is about Passports

It seems that all the news at present is about COVID Passports and where are we going for our Summer Holiday. We have been in lockdown here since early January and been vaccinating as fast as we can. So, our infection rate in the population has decreased from a high of 11.2% to 0.5% on the above graph.

Meanwhile all the countries that we go to for our holidays are going the other way and look like they are entering a new “wave”

I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but should we be talking about holidays where the infection rate is above 5% (1 in 200) ? After all this was the benchmark last year for the governments Red List?

It has cost the country Billions to get the infection rate down to where it is. Should we now run the risk of re-introducing a new variant like the new Brittany Variant ? We saw the Panic over the Brazilian Variant when it was discovered. Or is the Test and Trace System now “World Beating“? Or are we confident that our European cousins now have things in control.

alone in a window

When you heart is feeling sad

Jane saw this on BBC Breakfast Today. A Poem by Helen Smith called “When your heart is feeling sad” and wanted to have the words. So I thought you might like to have them as well.

When your heart is feeling sad and the tears fall from your eyes,
look outside your window and look up to the sky.
Their presence is all around you, they’re protecting you from above,
they’re watching over all of you and sending you their love.
They’ll visit you in your dreams to let you know there still around,
they’re the birdsong and the beauty and the feathers upon the ground.
So though you’ll miss them dearly please know this to be true that they will live on in other ways and forever be with you.

When you heart is feeling sad
by Helen Smith, who lost her dad to COVID-19.
BBC Breakfast

App Charity COVID-19 Environment Footpaths friends of st cyrs Fun Hidden Gardens History Information Last Night Our Environment Parish Council Phone Box Post Box Ride&Stride Roads Rugby Club Scams Speeding Speedwatch St Cyrs Stroud District Council Testing TGIF Toad Patrol Tyndale Village Hall Virtual Village

EU Flag

Read the contract!

EU export threat

According to the BBC The EU is threatening to withhold vaccine supplies to other countries. Why should supplies of vaccines made in the EU be exported to other countries when those same companies can’t supply the EU?

The answer seems to be in the small print of the contracts.

The UK Contract

In the UK contracts, signed early on, mostly paid upfront, at a premium price, and to be paid even if the vaccine didn’t work, we specified delivery dates or schedule.

The EU Contract

In the EU contracts, signed at the last minute, to be paid on delivery, at a bargain price, but not if the order was taken up, they just specied a quantity to be delivered with no schedule.

So which contact is better

I know if I was a Supplier of vaccines, I know which customer I would rather support. Of course I am slightly simplifying the argument, but then so is the EU!

Oximeter

An Oximeter could save your life

What is an Oximeter?

A pulse oximeter slips over your middle finger and shines a light into the body. It measures how much of the light is absorbed in order to calculate oxygen levels in the blood.

Oximeter
An Oximeter that clips onto your finger

Why it is important to have access to one.

One of the mysteries of Covid-19 is why oxygen levels in the blood can drop to dangerously low levels without the patient noticing. It is known as “silent hypoxia”.

As a result, patients have been arriving in hospital in far worse health than they realised and, in some cases, too late to treat effectively.

A normal oxygen level in the blood is between 95% and 100%. If oxygen levels drop to 93% or 94%, then people speak to their GP or call 111. If they go below 92%, people should go to A&E or call 999 for an ambulance.

Studies, which have not been reviewed by other scientists, have shown even small drops below 95% are linked to an increased risk of dying.

With Covid-19 still to be around for some time to come it is important that all families in Stinchcombe have access to one in case of catching the virus.
I have one at home – unused and in the box. So if you come down with the virus, just drop me an email. – Richard

App Charity COVID-19 Environment Footpaths friends of st cyrs Fun Hidden Gardens History Information Last Night Our Environment Parish Council Phone Box Post Box Ride&Stride Roads Rugby Club Scams Speeding Speedwatch St Cyrs Stroud District Council Testing TGIF Toad Patrol Tyndale Village Hall Virtual Village

Coronavirus Image

The Race to Vaccine

It’s Not a Race

In one breath we are told “it’s not a race”. However, in the next we are told how well the UK are doing compared with others. So which is true?

On the Bloomberg opens in a new window website they have launched a Covid Vaccine tracker opens in a new window. This is gives information in real time tracker and of course is USA biased. However, scroll down to the section titled “Race to End the Pandemic” (remember it’s NOT a race) and you get the interesting stuff.

This how many doses given and more importantly what percentage of the population. As of Jan 05 2021 the UK had vaccinated 1.95% of the the population. Which I think is quite laudable and we should the the UK Government it’s due for this.

The Global Vaccination Campaign
The Global Vaccination Campaign from Bloomberg.com

It will take time

We must however realise that it will take time. The UK Government is aiming to give 2M doses a week. There are 65M people in the UK. Each Vaccine needs 2 doses. That’s 65 weeks needed to vaccinate everyone….

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