Lockdown – the sequel

The Prologue

Like most people, I had hoped that the country could avoid a second National Lockdown. However it seems we have joined an ever lengthening list of countries that include Austria, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland and other parts of the UK that have announced a second Lockdown.

Re-reading the plot

I have been looking back at one of my earlier posts from the website in the year about Coronavirus and COVID-19, especially the earlier ones and what I forecast. For example:

“100M cases worldwide by the end of the year” 5 August 2020
“cross fingers, I do feel positive that the “second wave” can be avoided” 5 August 2020
“Any possible vaccine is up to 12 – 18 months away” 6 April 2020

The first is still possible, the second is now wrong and the third I still think will be true.

So, why are we in Lockdown – AGAIN

We all had hoped that because the virus infection rates had receded during the summer that we would be able to carry on, with restrictions, through the Winter. Unfortunately to my mind it come down to one thing The Percentage of Asymptomatic Cases.

According to the latest research from the CDC, 40% of all infections are asymptomatic. The CDC also say that this 40% pass on 75% of all infections.

This means, that you are three times as likely to catch COVID-19 from a person showing no signs of infection as you are from a person showing infection.

Without proper SOCIAL DISTANCING people play Russian Roulette with the virus. Every close contact outside your support bubble increases the probability that the person you meet is infectious but asymptomatic. Here in Gloucestershire, Stroud area cases have increased 69% in the last 7 days. We are still BELOW the National average, but the “confirmed” case numbers are now rising steeply.

AND REMEMBER for every 10 confirmed cases, there are 4 more walking around who don’t know they have it!