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And the answer is


Probabilities and Statistics

I have been trying to find how low the probability is of dying with COVID-19 if you have had both vaccination doses. However it’s proved to be an almost impossible task. My hopes were raised this week by an article in The Guardian and also the release of information by the ONS . Still, however It is an almost impossible task to try and read and correlate statistics to find one definitive answer.

From the ONS

However, from the ONS report, one table does jump out at me. The data is for deaths occurring between 2 January and 2 July. It shows just 458 deaths out of 51,281 if people have had TWO doses of vaccine or 0.8%

Vaccination statusDeaths involving
Percent of
all deaths
All deaths regardless of vaccination status51,281214,70119.3
Unvaccinated 38,96465,17037.4
Deaths within 21 days of first dose4,38814,26523.5
Deaths 21 days or more after first dose 7,28966,5339.9
Deaths within 21 days of second dose18211,4701.6
Deaths 21 days or more after second dose 45857,2630.8

Source: Office for National Statistics – National Immunisation Management Service, NHS Test and Trace


I have finally had to give up on trying to find the answer to my question. The ONS data ends in July and this is mid September. We have now all had TWO doses. I can’t figure out how the Guardian came up with the 1.2% or how Sajid Javid came up with 1% on BBC Breakfast this morning. However, I do feel that it must be around the 1% which means that non vaccinated people are up to 99 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than you are…. Or is this too simplistic?

Further Reading

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