End of Lockdown – Should we be worried?

Still 8k new cases per week

‘Coronavirus hibernation at an end’ is what Boris has told us yesterday, despite the UK still having 8K new cases of Confirmed COVID-19 per week.

I have always, for my own information, compared the UK response against Italy. At the start, the growth was almost identical, but Italy’s lockdown was much harsher that the one in the UK with documentation needed to go out at all (even to walk the dog). – Hence the rapid decline in numbers. Here in the UK it was much less onerous and more trust driven. Therefore the slower rate of decline.

Unfortunately this also means that at present there are still around 8,000 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per week and the rate of decline in numbers if new infections is slowing down. (see below)

This means that when the country re-opens with 1m distancing on July 4th there will still be a substantial number of new cases per week and still a pool of infection.

It is therefore inevitable that COVID-19 hot spots will occur around the country and we will be dependant on the Governments Test and Tracing skills which up to now have been woefully inadequate.

Forget the APP….it’s consigned to history and will probably be dropped. The Testing however takes up to 72 hours for results (gov own figures), but you won’t get tested until you feel unwell…..then the Tracing, only manages to trace 4 out of 5 contacts given.

So unless the population as a whole still maintains “social distancing” and the “washing of hands” and all other preventative measures, there is a real chance of the second peak arriving sooner rather than later.

We in Stinchcombe and Gloucestershire have on the whole been lucky with COVID-19 and shown admirable sense, but we should not relax our vigilance at all until the numbers fall further.

Just look what has happened to the USA when they re-opened too soon…..It’s now as bad as ever… (see below)