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How do we get out of lockdown – update

I wrote on the 6th April a piece about how we can get out of “lockdown” and move forward, and speculated what life would be like for the rest of the year. At the time I thought it contentious and was expecting lots of comments…and indeed asked for some…..I received not one.

Since then, we have definitely seen the peak of cases and the Government, like others around the world are now stating a conversation proposing many of the same measures I wrote about. The Government is also hinting about re-opening businesses…and it fact is already doing so

I would urge great caution…

It has become clear over time just how bad our leaders have planned for this pandemic, and made many mistakes and the greatest mistake might be in opening up the country too early. To illustrate my case, please see the graphs below where I have superimposed the UK against Italy but used as the starting point for both countries LockDown day which Italy entered into some 2 weeks before the UK.

The curve of the Pandemic in the UK (the blue line) is almost identical to that of Italy, but where as the number of new cases in Italy has steadily dropped, the rate of new cases in the UK has not yet dropped back at all and stubbornly remains around 4000 per day. It’s a much slower decline, possibly because the Lockdown in Italy was much much stricter.

To put it another way, at the start of lockdown the UK (in Blue) had fewer cases than Italy, but around a week ago the lines crossed over and now we have more cases than Italy and we can still expect many many more cases.

Whatever, If any politician reads or learns from History, perhaps they should read the following article about the 1918 pandemic and what happened when preventative measures were lifted too soon.

That is just one of many articles you can find by googling “Double Curve Pandemic”. What does worry me, is that our government will decide that an acceptable rate of infection for the UK, is around 4,000 new cases per day and lift the restrictions too soon………………….

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