This is an interesting topic which I am sure a lot of people will be wanting to have answered…..however the short answer is nobody knows! However we can say when it’s slowing down and what the final number might be at that point. So let’s look at two sources of information.

1st, Public Health England has just started to produce a running total of all UK cases which provides a good source of statistical information. You can find it here. The most important thing for us is that it gives the daily number of cases.

2nd, I invite you to watch the following 9 min You Tube film and then together we can make some deductions.

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Now, I am not up on my maths myself, (perhaps someone is in Stinchcombe) but having watched the video we learn basically that the number of the population infected follows an exponential curve at the start and then slows down until the Average Growth Factor drops below 1 or “The Inflection Point” and from that point the total number of cases in the UK will top out to be around double the number at “The Inflection Point”.

At present however we are far, far from this point and the Growth Factor seems to be averaging around 1.28. If that high rate remains the case, the total infected by 31st March in the UK would be over 75K.

See the chart below, the figures are all estimated after 13 March but on the right side are the actual numbers of cases in Italy up to-days date, but offset in time to try and match the growth curve in the UK. You will see it matches almost exactly but that without change, we are around 11 days behind Italy.

Date	Total Cases	Change	Growth Factor	7 day Avg		Total Cases	Change
23/02	13
24/02	13
25/02	13
26/02	13
27/02	13
28/02	19	6
29/02	23	4	0.67
01/03	35	12	3.00
02/03	40	5	0.42
03/03	51	11	2.20
04/03	85	34	3.09
05/03	114	29	0.85
06/03	160	46	1.59	1.69		157
07/03	206	46	1.00	1.74		229	72
08/03	271	65	1.41	1.51		323	94
09/03	321	50	0.77	1.56		470	147
10/03	373	52	1.04	1.39		655	185
11/03	456	83	1.60	1.18		889	234
12/03	595	139	1.67	1.30		1128	239
13/03	797	202	1.45	1.28		1701	573
14/03	1056 E	259 E	1.28	1.28		2036	335
15/03	1387 E	331 E		1.28		2502	466
16/03	1810 E	424 E		1.28		3089	587
17/03	2352 E	542 E		1.28		3858	769
18/03	3046 E	694 E		1.28		4636	778
19/03	3935 E	888 E		1.28		5883	1247
20/03	5072 E	1137 E		1.28		7375	1492
21/03	6528 E	1456 E		1.28		9172	1797
22/03	8391 E	1863 E		1.28		10149	977
23/03	10775 E	2385 E		1.28		12462	2313
24/03	13828 E	3053 E		1.28		15113	2651
25/03	17735	3907 E		1.28		17660	2547
26/03	22737 E	5001 E		1.28
27/03	29138 E	6402 E		1.28
28/03	37332 E	8194 E		1.28
29/03	47821 E	10488E		1.28
30/03	61246 E	13425E		1.28
31/03	78430 E	17184E		1.28

Obviously we don’t want this to happen, but remember 75K is still only 0.1% of the population. We also saw watching the film that the increase in the number of cases on a given day is a direct multiplication of the Average number of infected people we are exposed to each day times the Probability of each exposure becoming an infection. I.E. The fewer people you meet plus the more careful we are with hygiene will directly effect the growth factor.

This of course is why other countries have gone into lock-down and why next week will be crucial here in the UK. – Remember, infections received today show up in 7 / 14 days time.

So keep an eye on the average 7 day growth factor, when it drops below 1.00, you know we are on the way to turning around the infection in the UK.

Lastly remember, what all the above does not show is the large percentage of people that catch Coronavirus and quickly get better without showing up on the statistics. This could be as high as 80% of those infected so by the end of the month 375K people could be infected. But this is still only 0.05% of the population.

There is SO much out now on the web about Coronavirus but because it is a fluid situation, the information seems have changed and much on the web is now out of date as the Government message itself changes. So here is the current information and facts:

How to prevent infection

• The Single most important thing to do to protect ourselves is to wash and keep our hands clean which will reduce your risk by 16%.
• The Second most important thing is to stop touching your face with those dirty hands as on average we do this 23 times an hour!
• The Third is social distancing of at least 1m between people.

All of which should reduce the peak on demand on NHS services we all are working together for. However, we should realise that a large proportion of the population will catch this. So,

What are the symptoms?

First of all, incubation is from 5 to 10 days, but can be up to 14 days before symptoms show up and you can be infectious before infections show. So, social distancing is so important here to prevent onward transmission. The main symptoms are:

• Fever
• Cough
• Shortness of breath

Most people will suffer little and will get better by themselves with paracetamol and throat lozenges, within a few days. So just stay at home and self treat. You will not now be tested. However you should at home now for 7 days. I.E. SELF ISOLATE.

IMPORTANT
Please let others in the community know, especially if you live alone, so we can help you get anything you need.

If your symptoms persist after 7 days or get worse, use the CORONAVIRUS SERVICE on the web if you have internet which has been set up especially.

Don’t ring NHS 111 before you try the web. DO NOT GO TO YOUR GP!

All above information can be found here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

The CORONAVIRUS SERVICE can be found here: https://111.nhs.uk/covid-19/

Coronavirus in Stinchcombe

So, today Coronavirus has got to Stinchcombe and we must think about our community and our neighbours. During the following weeks others will be catching this virus and others will be self isolating. This is the time to get to know your neighbours, especially if they are in the higher risk categories, to see what we can do for each other.

Nationally

The government’s aim is to slow down the rate of infection so that the National Health Service is not overwhelmed by a cataclysmic peak in demand like what has happened in Italy.

• People in the high risk categories may wish to keep social interactions to a minimum is the short term future until it is hoped that the rate of infection reduces in the spring.So how about keeping in touch with your neighbours, offering to share an on-line shop, or buy essentials for them.
• People in our community will be catching the virus, so look after them and help.

Locally

At times like this a community should be coming together in the next few weeks.Keeping up to date with information is always a good way basing any response needed so here are a few links to follow:

• The most up-to date number of worldwide cases can be found here:
• The Reddit worldwide community news for all snippets of info here:
• Probably the most comprehensive worldwide map of every single case here:
• The EXCELLENT UK GOV blog here:
• and finally the very good WHO information pages can be found here:

Finally

I hope you find the above useful. Personally I think that so far, the UK Government has reacted just right to the pandemic in measured and clear steps with the experts taking centre stage. I did come across this in my explorations….AN exercise was run last year by Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation…the results were published in OCTOBER 2019 and can be found and downloaded from their website here:

In short it listed the preparedness of the worlds governments to a worldwide pandemic….UK came 2nd!! In front of every other country except one.