What is a Lent Lunch?
This is a simple meal of soup, bread or crackers, cheese and possibly some fruit – nothing elaborate.

Why hold a Lent Lunch?
To empathise in a very small way with those who have little to eat and to get together with friends
and/or acquaintances you do not know very well yet.

It is a way of doing something distinctive with others during the season of Lent, which runs from Ash Wednesday to Maundy Thursday.

Come to this years Lent Lunch on Saturday 4th April at noon at the Bartletts. Langside, Northfields Lane.

We are having a churchyard clear-up and church vacuum and dusting on
Saturday 28th March starting at 9.30 am.

If you can help it would be much appreciated . Even an hour or two would be very useful .

Anyone who has, or can use a lawn strimmer or mower, or could bring a rake or stiff brush or secateurs or stiff brush that would be massively helpful .

Many thanks for your support

Paul

This is an interesting topic which I am sure a lot of people will be wanting to have answered…..however the short answer is nobody knows! However we can say when it’s slowing down and what the final number might be at that point. So let’s look at two sources of information.

1st, Public Health England has just started to produce a running total of all UK cases which provides a good source of statistical information. You can find it here. The most important thing for us is that it gives the daily number of cases.

2nd, I invite you to watch the following 9 min You Tube film and then together we can make some deductions.

Now, I am not up on my maths myself, (perhaps someone is in Stinchcombe) but having watched the video we learn basically that the number of the population infected follows an exponential curve at the start and then slows down until the Average Growth Factor drops below 1 or “The Inflection Point” and from that point the total number of cases in the UK will top out to be around double the number at “The Inflection Point”.

At present however we are far, far from this point and the Growth Factor seems to be averaging around 1.28. If that high rate remains the case, the total infected by 31st March in the UK would be over 75K.

See the chart below, the figures are all estimated after 13 March but on the right side are the actual numbers of cases in Italy up to-days date, but offset in time to try and match the growth curve in the UK. You will see it matches almost exactly but that without change, we are around 11 days behind Italy.

Obviously we don’t want this to happen, but remember 75K is still only 0.1% of the population. We also saw watching the film that the increase in the number of cases on a given day is a direct multiplication of the Average number of infected people we are exposed to each day times the Probability of each exposure becoming an infection. I.E. The fewer people you meet plus the more careful we are with hygiene will directly effect the growth factor.

This of course is why other countries have gone into lock-down and why next week will be crucial here in the UK. – Remember, infections received today show up in 7 / 14 days time.

So keep an eye on the average 7 day growth factor, when it drops below 1.00, you know we are on the way to turning around the infection in the UK.

Lastly remember, what all the above does not show is the large percentage of people that catch Coronavirus and quickly get better without showing up on the statistics. This could be as high as 80% of those infected so by the end of the month 375K people could be infected. But this is still only 0.05% of the population.

There is SO much out now on the web about Coronavirus but because it is a fluid situation, the information seems have changed and much on the web is now out of date as the Government message itself changes. So here is the current information and facts:

How to prevent infection

• The Single most important thing to do to protect ourselves is to wash and keep our hands clean which will reduce your risk by 16%.
• The Second most important thing is to stop touching your face with those dirty hands as on average we do this 23 times an hour!
• The Third is social distancing of at least 1m between people.

All of which should reduce the peak on demand on NHS services we all are working together for. However, we should realise that a large proportion of the population will catch this. So,

What are the symptoms?

First of all, incubation is from 5 to 10 days, but can be up to 14 days before symptoms show up and you can be infectious before infections show. So, social distancing is so important here to prevent onward transmission. The main symptoms are:

• Fever
• Cough
• Shortness of breath

Most people will suffer little and will get better by themselves with paracetamol and throat lozenges, within a few days. So just stay at home and self treat. You will not now be tested. However you should at home now for 7 days. I.E. SELF ISOLATE.

IMPORTANT
Please let others in the community know, especially if you live alone, so we can help you get anything you need.

If your symptoms persist after 7 days or get worse, use the CORONAVIRUS SERVICE on the web if you have internet which has been set up especially.

Don’t ring NHS 111 before you try the web. DO NOT GO TO YOUR GP!

All above information can be found here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

The CORONAVIRUS SERVICE can be found here: https://111.nhs.uk/covid-19/

A selection of Walks and Cycle Rides by Stinchcombe Residents.

See “Looking for a Logo”

I’m looking for a logo for the Village Website. Something that reflects the village, and also maybe a tagline? You can see my effort, but I am sure there is someone creative in the village who could have a go for me to produce something much better.

Please send in your original, inventive and inspired works to me to add your sparkle to the website and maybe the Parish Council will adopt it as well?

Richard