In the last newsletter I promised you an update, so these are my PERSONAL thoughts.
Today, on the 5th August, the worldwide number of cases reached 18.5M and looking at the logarithmic page in opens in a new windowworldometer it doesn’t take rocket science to predict that if nothing changes, by the end of the year there will be 100m cases worldwide. There is also a great deal of under-reporting in many countries, (for political reasons and non-political reasons) This means that the possible number by year end may be much, much higher. 100m is around 1.25% of the world’s population.
Whatever the figure is at the end of the year, I am trying to say that this virus is still VERY active worldwide and will NOT go away until the Vaccine arrives, and the vaccine will arrive, but don’t go looking for your dose until WINTER 2021.
I have been critical of the Government’s response from the start and unfortunately still remain critical.
- The “World Beating App” which was given to NHS developers who unfortunately saw it as a chance to collect data, store it centrally, and allow for great data analysis. This is the same NHS where one hospital can’t send patients details electronically to another. E.G. Gloucester to Oxford. (No I don’t know why) to
- “Track and Trace” which was again given over to be centralised. All very well, but can someone on a computer in their house talk to someone in Leicester who doesn’t even speak English? “Track and Trace” should always have been regionalised. Something now starting to happen in places like Manchester as they set up their own “Track and Trace” .
- Likewise the “Testing” fiasco, no, don’t start me on the “Testing”…
The UK government routinely talks about Testing CAPACITY, but surely the ONLY number that really matters and of any importance is the number of tests PROCESSED! The question the government should ask is “Why weren’t the other 178,747 tests done yesterday?”
However, in all this, I think the response of the British People has been remarkable, with one or two exceptions, where I despair, all in all the Great British Public has shown great sense, and remarkable politeness and kindness to each other. Something that I thought that would wear quickly off has remained as the months progress.
The Next Few Months
A lot depends on how well people continue to adhere to the rules about “Washing Hands”, “Distancing”, “Masks” and “Socialising”. All of us need to keep these newfound habits and not let them slip.
Unfortunately, because each part of the UK has different rules, which change frequently, (what happened to Boris’s red lights, or was it defcon 1-5) no-one really knows what rules still apply! So the common man is left doing what seems right…
So to the good news….although nationally the UK cases has slowly been rising over the last month from 550 (7D avg) it’s still only 800 (7D avg) even with all the loosening of the rules and does not show any rapid acceleration in numbers. (Cross Fingers!!)
In fact opens in a new windowStinchcombe sits in a large area of less than 2 cases per week. I see no reason why this will not remain the case except where cases are brought into the area from outside by mixing on holiday, or mixing of younger people. (18+)
However, I do see life as it is now continuing until the end of next year. We cannot stop hotspots occuring nationwide, but I do feel positive that the “second wave” can be avoided.
If you are interested, I do suggest you visit the government website for all the latest.
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