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COVID-19

Needle

The Big Question

When do I get my Vaccine?

Now that we seem to have successful vaccines coming on line very soon, the one question we all want answered is “When do I get my COVID-19 vaccine?” It goes along with “When will life return to normal?”

The UK Government is talking already about mass vaccinations but unless they know something that I don’t, we are all going to have to wait.

At present Pfizer is planning to produce 50 million doses by the end of 2020 and Moderna 20 million and let’s say they both get approval and let’s say the UK gets 10% (my guesstimate) of the production, that would be 7,000,000. This would be enough for everyone over everyone aged 80 and over.

Next year, 2021 Pfizer is planning to produce 1.3 billion and Moderna 500 million. Britain has ordered 40 million from Pfizer. So this would give us in the UK a further 35 million by the end of 2021. Enough to vaccinate everyone over 35 years old.

The Big Unknown

The Vaccine that could change everything is the Oxford vaccine by the University of Oxford (Vaccitech) and AstraZeneca which is still three months away. It is a different vaccine and made in a different and easier way. 2 billion doses could be made next year in the UK alone. This could easily satisfy our requirements. Let’s hope it passes all tests.

Tentative Conclusion

This is my suggested timescale for Vaccinations for different ages:

  • 80 plus very late 2020 / early 2021
  • 35 plus in 2021
  • Under 35 in 2022.
  • If the Oxford works and is released in Feb / March, then all bets are off.

References


App A Village Property Charity COVID-19 friends of st cyrs Fun History Information Our Environment Parish Council Phone Box Post Box Ride&Stride Roads Rugby Club Scams Speedwatch St Cyrs Stroud District Council Testing TGIF Tyndale Village Hall

Stinchcombe Together

Here to help

Two down, Two to go

After two weeks of lockdown, we still have two more weeks of Lockdown. Many people probably feel that this second Lockdown is harder than the first. Maybe because of the darker nights, maybe because of “pandemic fatigue“, or just because of less social interaction. It might be because someone has employment or financial worries.

Covid has also come closer, with most people now knowing either a person who has had COVID or knows of a friend of a friend.

Stinchcombe Together

At this time remember to look after your neighbours and keep in touch with friends, make sure they are OK. Remember Stinchcombe Together is still here to help with:

  • Shopping,
  • Prescriptions
  • Essential items
  • Keeping in touch
  • General support

Each area of the Village has its own Local Street Contact to coordinate the response required. For more information email stinchcombeparish@gmail.comcreate new email

Stinchcombe Together also run the “Stinchcombe Social” WhatsApp Group which anyone in the village is free to join.

App A Village Property Charity COVID-19 friends of st cyrs Fun History Information Our Environment Parish Council Phone Box Post Box Ride&Stride Roads Rugby Club Scams Speedwatch St Cyrs Stroud District Council Testing TGIF Tyndale Village Hall

Support

Lockdown Support

Latest Information from Stroud District Council

Shielding Support

People who were advised to shield during the last wave and People who had access to a supermarket priority delivery slot will still be able to access this without the need to re-register. People who did not use this service during the first lockdown but would like to this time they will need to register. This can be done by via The National Shielding Support Service(NSSS).

If anyone needs help with registering on the NSSS please contact Gloucestershire Help Hub on telephone 01452 583519.

The Clinically Extremely Vulnerable

Some residents may have received a letter from the Government and Gloucestershire County Council advising them that they are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV). If a resident hasn’t received a letter but believes they are a CEV they would need to check with their GP or Clinician regarding this. You can find a list of people who would be considered to be a CEV here at SDC

Further Information

You can find further up to date information at the SDC Coronavirus update. This includes :-

  • Advice for CEV’s
  • Funding for Covid-19 Response Groups
  • Updates from Government
  • Gloucestershire Community Help Hub
  • Support with food
  • Support for Older Adults
  • Homelessness advice and referrals
  • Mental Health Support
  • Domestic Violence
  • Money worries and budgeting

App A Village Property Charity COVID-19 friends of st cyrs Fun History Information Our Environment Parish Council Phone Box Post Box Ride&Stride Roads Rugby Club Scams Speedwatch St Cyrs Stroud District Council Testing TGIF Tyndale Village Hall

Lockdown – the sequel

The Prologue

Like most people, I had hoped that the country could avoid a second National Lockdown. However it seems we have joined an ever lengthening list of countries that include Austria, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland and other parts of the UK that have announced a second Lockdown.

Re-reading the plot

I have been looking back at one of my earlier posts from the website in the year about Coronavirus and COVID-19, especially the earlier ones and what I forecast. For example:

The first is still possible, the second is now wrong and the third I still think will be true.

So, why are we in Lockdown – AGAIN

We all had hoped that because the virus infection rates had receded during the summer that we would be able to carry on, with restrictions, through the Winter. Unfortunately to my mind it come down to one thing The Percentage of Asymptomatic Cases.

According to the latest research from the CDC, 40% of all infections are asymptomatic. The CDC also say that this 40% pass on 75% of all infections.

This means, that you are three times as likely to catch COVID-19 from a person showing no signs of infection as you are from a person showing infection.

Without proper SOCIAL DISTANCING people play Russian Roulette with the virus. Every close contact outside your support bubble increases the probability that the person you meet is infectious but asymptomatic. Here in Gloucestershire, Stroud area cases have increased 69% in the last 7 days. We are still BELOW the National average, but the “confirmed” case numbers are now rising steeply.

AND REMEMBER for every 10 confirmed cases, there are 4 more walking around who don’t know they have it!

From the COVID Symptom Tracker App Study

App A Village Property Charity COVID-19 friends of st cyrs Fun History Information Our Environment Parish Council Phone Box Post Box Ride&Stride Roads Rugby Club Scams Speedwatch St Cyrs Stroud District Council Testing TGIF Tyndale Village Hall

Over 1m Cases by 5th November?

Are we now following France?

Having just looked at the confirmed covid cases for the UK and France I note that we seem to be around 10 days behind France. Today (October 28th) we have 917K cases and France passed this number on October 21st. Does this mean we shall pass the 1m in 3 days and be in Lockdown in 10 days?

Today France is talking about a total lockdown according to the news. Time to go out and buy toilet paper and flour again?

App A Village Property Charity COVID-19 friends of st cyrs Fun History Information Our Environment Parish Council Phone Box Post Box Ride&Stride Roads Rugby Club Scams Speedwatch St Cyrs Stroud District Council Testing TGIF Tyndale Village Hall

COVID-19 Testing at DRC

COVID Testing at the Rugby Club

Covid Testing Unit

The mobile testing unit will be back at the Stinchcombe Rugby Club according to the Gloucestershire County Council website tomorrow Wed 28th October. Also Monday 2nd and Tuesday 3rd November.

Anyone with symptoms of Covid-19 can have a test BUT you must book a test in advance

Anyone with symptoms of Covid-19 can have a test. You must book a test in advance. Please do not turn up to one of the locations without booking anyone without a booking risks being turned away.

To book a test

To book a test or for more information on testing, go to the  opens in a new windowNHS website or call 119.

Permanent unit

Gloucester RTS
Hempsted Meadows, David Hook Way, Gloucester, GL2 5LE

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Coronavirus Image

COVID Update October

Latest Numbers

The BBC and others are fixated on UK news. Are we SO insular these days? Looking at the Worldwide COVID-19 Dashboard I see that not only has the 40M case number been passed but the 400K new cases per day also. The whole of the EU (and UK) is also now in the midst of a second “wave”. In March the peak was at the 30K per day level at present it’s 115K per day.

Source POLITICO

Of course this is not the whole story as most people in March were not tested, so the estimated daily infection rate for March is probably higher than now.

Worrying Trend for the UK

However, behind the current statistics is a worrying trend. So whilst the current estimated daily infection rate for the UK is around 17.5K per day, well short the peak 100K per day in March, unless something drastic is done in the UK this could rise to 85K by the end of the year. This would also mean that the same number of ICU beds that we needed in May would be needed in January. Unfortunately we are due to run out of ICU beds in early November……

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